In times of AIG

Where there is nothing left but wait till AIG comes with 75 billion bucks, we should be thinking in holding cash, and foresee new chances to get our portfolio running in a very very volatile market. By saying so, I willing put some thoughts on the table as nothing but bad news are coming from every single place, market, or country. What to play? a question that still should take us to books and do what we hate to do: wait. Take your positions and hold´em until it breaks your stops, that´s the only way you can stay cautious and at the same time can have a bite of the of a turning market, a market where there is no direction or trend any longer as everything is on the floor or going ahead to it. Despite this you can call some longs and some shorts that make worth your time.
longs: Barrick Gold Corp, General Electric, Tesoro, Pacific Ethanol, Office Depot and Hecla Mining.
shorts: Deltic Timber, Northern Trust, Covance, Walter Industries, Flowserve, Capitol Federal Financial, Valmont

keep an eye on: Amgen and Wallmart

Inminent Short plays

Illumina, flowserve, walter industries, watson wyatt, fti consulting, itron inc, sunpower. All of then trading at prices with wonderfull downside potential

And the Oscar goes to: Walter Industries !!!!!!

For those how kindly read this blog and follow some our tips, here you have some proven advice: Walter Industries has come right to make us happy with small red trade an Friday but nice one today with 13% (before market is closed)...will keep looking further...hope to find more gold to share with you!

Tips while traveling!

keep an eye on Walter Industries (enter short), Hewitt Associated (enter short), Biovail (enter long) and Tesoro (enter long)....there are some levels at which a trading opportunity might surge since the to long calls are coming right from the bottom with solid demand backing them up, and the short calls are based on chart and figures (lower lows lower highs). Good Luck!!!

More of the same

stocks petit stocks...The floor is on fire!

The floor is on fire! (and believe me the roof is on fire as well!) but today am bringing some stocks I feel comfortable with (technically speaking), regardless what´s truly hot now days: currency corrections!, I will focus myself in those stocks with prices so low that value seems to be calling me to trade them. You can go for Hecla Mining or Quicksilver ( with very nice graphs and figures) but I might halt on Office Depot where a bounce back into "what used to be historic lows" might bring back today a 30% return on investment if you are buy the stock, of course you can always go to options (calls) to bring back some leverage to your pocket with a 6 to 12 month time frame. Other nice stock is Biovail, with more than tested floor it seems like is burning down there and jumping from that hot line can air its potential. At the same time commodity related stocks like Hecla Mining can diversify your portfolio and some how give you the advantage to trade oil non-impact stocks (as this is not much of a true quote as everything is impacted by oil, but). In the past volatility has played a key role in making a decision of whether to take or not stocks with a beta that will show little reaction to major changes in the benchmark index used, in order to make safer portfolio... I think this is nothing but a different way to go...but not a safer one since any stock should suffer investors anger or optimism. Consider this stocks as something else for next 6 months trading range.

Taking a look at my stocks. 17 days later

WM taking al the heat from housing is trading withing red zone. entry point: 518/ trading at 461
mtmk: -12% .
MF gainging strengh from bottom is coming every time closer to exit point. entry point: 490/ trading at 740, mtmk: 50%
Holx filling the gap, the stock is recovering slowly. entry point: 2500/ trading at 2106, mtmk: -16% (stop triggered at 15% down-trading)
Lly moderate trading activity. entry point: 4800/ trading at 4814, mtmk: 0.2%
Barc near its target price. entry point: 289/ trading at 350, mtmk: 17%
GE higher lows, good forcast. entry point: 2750/ trading at 2966, mtmk: 8%
Fls 4 tops chart, downtrend drawing combined with oil issue. entry point: 13560/ trading at 12149, mtmk: 11.5%
CVD double top january 2008, lets see what´s next. entry point: 8964/ trading at 9907, mtmk: -10.5%
bulls eye criteria: GOOG, trading up from a very well known level (4750), is aiming to regaing fibonacci levels

My portfolio: My way, your profit!

All stops placed at 15% of value at entry position.

long entries
Washington Mutual entry: 518 target: 1243
MF Global entry: 490 target: 1095/ 1245/ 1500
Hologic inc entry: 2500 target: 3095
Eli Lilly & Co: 4800 target: 5485
Barclays entry: 289 target: 394/420
General Electric entry: 2750 target: 3200

shorts
flowserve entry: 1356 target: 1165
covance entry: 8964 target: 8009

bull´s eye criteria: google

chart of the day: MF Global

VMI upgraded by Sterne Agee

VMI have been upgraded from Hold to Buy by Sterne Agee as the stock got some confidence back at recognisable level of 61.8% down form upper quotes or historical high. With at least 6 exhausting tales at this well tested support point any no so bad news could level up this particular stock. Now you can picture two higher lows on the annualy based graph, both marking a long uptrend to be defined as some retracement is expected to be seen in advance to this 13% jump from base. In times where banking and financial sector is some how gaining back points in credivility as losses are not so great as expected, maybe we can go for traditional thinking and once againg find some indicators to be useful tools and predictions models can come into the game.

Our filters outcome: fundamental and technical playing together

The best way to go, no mather how deep is your budget in red zone is to keep your principles untouchables, today we make a new render for our criterias and came with this few choises to be consider by you:
Humana (HUM) despite its recent quoting downtrend and later recovery up to 45 level, this stock should not be trading below 36.55 level as three hammers point a level of satisfaction over this point. But buyers and sellers have been careful with getting much involved at this mark as 52 weeks is near 33 ...below that, god may be by your side at all times. So basically it looks as a good entry because there is a previus fall to be recovered at 63.89 level.

More shorts to keep in mind. time frame 45 days

Curve your enthusiasm!

As yesterday, today you can find pessimistic headlines talking once again about housing problems: let´s face it, the end is not even close. You should probably thank me if I come with some " trading-bulls eye-tip". Ok here you go some of the stocks I´ve been insisting on are by now in the money for those who took short positions on this big movers:
Flowserve

Walter industries

Unit corp

Valmont industries

Priceline.com

All this stocks are high price/high volatility stocks where a 10% movement results in a dramatic change in taken positions, and as any Fibonacci will tell you almost all of them are far away from its 50% barrier, so, there is a much road down the hill to go. Nothing Like King Kong taking some time to watch Big Sam Struggling.

Fannie and Freddie - Mamma Fed is Here, don´t worry!

Capter I. Fannie and Freddie, let´s talk no more about them
Right now, as mixed as we can see market going, dilemma will be what stocks to pick considering leverage and time frame. If you can stand still right there and take the heat from house slump, the sell off will bring some clarity to those with some cash at hand. So, no mater how good the 3G I phone is, no company should feel save from a cascade of stops triggering event, as the market sentiment goes from good to bad in just few seconds. Taking this "nobody is safe anymore" slogan our point of view is to search out of the money options on tech, cover you ass selling cash position and buying bargain level stocks. Summer season already bringing pressure on oil prices higher, dollar down, interest rates with no power to control inflation, the only choice will be to hold downgraded under priced stocks, sell oil and steal related companies and buy some leverage and opportunity with tech assets, After all what else can we do, but wait and trade ground safely? no one know what´s gonna happen next - and we are stating to feel like this city surrounded by water.

Chapter II. Sell Flowserve (FLS) retesting highs, buy Google option (down today good timing), buy Alon cash.

Wellcare touching the 30s

Healthcare insurers system is suffering downgrades from rating houses due to an increase in long and short-term debt and weak profit forcasts. We can see how stocks like wellcare (WCG) are ranging testing new floors where it might meet some stops or buying orders that may hold the falling from been chaotic, nevertheless you could think that from 30 to 0, there are still plenty of short bets to go, while every economy sector in US had, is or will suffer the financial and housing slump. Either way now or maybe in a timeframe of 2 or 3 weeks, wellcare will look after staying above 30 or retesting its historical lows, anyhow, scale orders while going down will give you an average price that that might very much meet bargain entry levels, been 20 the worst case escenario till today. Medicare system is US Achilles' heel as there is a trend to cut public expenditure, and people some how is specting this to affect th price even more. target price will be pointed near to 20 level, in line with this support testing attitud we will probably see in this stock's behavior . Once again oportunities are rising from the dark days of some.

shorts and longs! tips for the day

There was a guy, I broker or a trader, (promess to look up for its blog) who quoted himself as a bearish marketer...and reading what he had to say, a felt, by the end of it, a little bearish myself too. Reasons to sell are overwhelming, so, there are only to choises as I see it, to be taken from now on: take your downgraded stocks and hold them tight, sell everything in high heels regardeless whether its related or not to oil pumping.

If you feel like the market is recently going anywhere but where you think... then you should feel like these clons
(gogoye galery (R))

Here is a list of my favorite shorts and longs.
shorts:
Valmont Industries (VMI)
Illumina Inc (ILMN)
Walter Industries (WLT)
Salesforce.com (CRM)
Credit Corp Ltd (BAP)
Flowserve Corp (FLS) despite recent recomendating to outperform
Priceline.com (PCLN)
Smith International Inc (SII)

Longs:
Starbucks (SBUX)
Citgroup (C)
Alon USA (ALJ)
General Electric (GE)
Wellcare health Plans Inc (WCG)
Dean Foods Co (DF)

Illumina asking for someone to catch it!

Jejeje they say much of it is over, I particulary doubt it... When there is still money to be made, you will always find a way to profit from a pesimistic point of view... As Tech Cos are still waiting to play its carts, no one should fill free from falling ...this is the case of Illumina Inc, trading at its highest level, will encounter a problem to keep this pase as it short interest its very high... Lets take it as it´s: A crisis! so let´s take it down to its knees, shorts come all together and take the cash you´ll need later to hold the huracanes season, always remebering that waht we actually see today is the peak of the iceberg or the tale of a shark...jaws are still waintig to catch a better prize.

advice: go short ...go super short!

Stumble Upon and I

I´ve been following US markets for a while and right now some associations can be done between art and stock as they are changing their shape from big companies to troubled Cos. As time goes by, core stoks are going into bargain terrain. It came to me as an unusual idea to realte diferent stuff to illustrate this movement by taken images form the web and graphs from this Cias. My surfing took me to Stumble Upon web, a place where you can bookmark and discover great content, for example A yellow Rhino (Carsten Höller®) a huge animal who loses it strength beacuse of it´s color, and such sadness it reflected on its crystal eyes. It remains me companies like SBUX (starbucks), a truly amazing coffe related company, a gigant of its industry, wich prices are coming to a ridiculus point where there is nothing left to do but by and take rest at a confortable chair till this market recognazes it´s true value...This is the way brutal Capitalism regulates it self, closing stores, big banks going into bankruptcy... houses sales on halt... and inflation taken eating earnings as his brother "big busty oil" sets the tone with a never ending rally.